Analysis of flood propagation changes in the Kienstock—Bratislava reach of the Danube River/Analyse des changements de propagation des crues dans le tronçon Kienstock—Bratislava du Fleuve Danube     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)

Abstract

In the first part of this study, a flood wave transformation analysis for the largest historical floods in the Danube River reach Kienstock–Bratislava was carried out. For the simulation of the historical (1899 and 1954) flood propagation, the nonlinear river model NLN-Danube (calibrated on the recent river reach conditions) was used. It was shown that the simulated peak discharges were not changed significantly when compared to their historical counterparts. However, the simulated hydrographs exhibit a significant acceleration of the flood wave movement at discharges of between 5000 and 9000 m³ s^-1. In the second part, the travel time-water level relationships between Kienstock and Bratislava were analysed on a dataset of the flood peak water levels for the period 1991–2002. An empirical regression routing scheme for the Danube short-term water level forecast at Bratislava station was derived. This is based on the measured water level at Kienstock gauging station.  相似文献   

Comparison of long-, medium- and short-term variations of beach profiles with and without submerged geological control     

J.J. Muñoz-Perez  R. Medina 《Coastal Engineering》2010

Victoria Beach (Cadiz, Spain) comprises a rocky flat outcrop in its northern zone and a sand-rich southern zone. These natural features allowed for a 5-year monitoring period and subsequent analysis of two different profiles (one in each zone) based on differences in bottom contours. Topo-bathymetric data were analysed using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) to determine changes over the short-, medium- and long-term. Several morphologic phenomena were identified (generalised erosion, seasonal or summer–winter tilting of the profile around different hinge points, berm development and its posterior destruction, etc.) in terms of their importance in explaining the variability of the collected data for both profiles. It is worth mentioning that both profiles undergo parallel regression in the medium-term. Thus, the 1st eigenfunction enabled us to identify the true regression of the beach shoreline, independent of seasonal or summer–winter slope changes. Reconstruction of profiles using EOF components demonstrated that though accretion periods in the medium-term were similar for both types of profiles, the accretion speed was much faster in the sand-rich profile than in the reef-protected profile (1.01 m³/day versus 0.33 m³/day). Moreover, the seasonal erosion rate and the subsequent shoreline retreat for the sand-rich profile were much larger than for the reef-protected profile (121 m³/year versus 29 m³/year). Analysis in the short-term (changes induced by a single day's storm) showed an instantaneous tilting of the profile, with the mobilised sand volume being much greater for the sand-rich than for the reef-protected profile (68 m³/m versus 12 m³/m).  相似文献   

临夏黄土记录的26万年来季风快速变化     

郭飞  王婷  刘宇明  王扬  樊会敏  孙有斌 《第四纪研究》2019,39(3):557-564

黄土高原西部高分辨率黄土序列开展的多代用指标研究,有助于揭示轨道-亚轨道尺度上东亚冬、夏季风的变化特征及动力机制。但针对同一地质记录提取冬、夏季风多代用指标进行对比和敏感性分析的工作尚不多见,因此制约了对季风快速变化特征和机理的理解。本文利用甘肃临夏85 m黄土岩芯开展高分辨率的粒度、磁化率和元素扫描分析,发现在轨道尺度上粒度和Zr/Rb比值显示的大幅冰期-间冰期波动与深海氧同位素记录有很好的对应关系,表明东亚冬季风的波动响应于北半球高纬冰量的变化。但在千年尺度上,粒度能更敏感地响应冬季风的快速变化;Rb/Sr比值和磁化率均能很好记录轨道尺度上的东亚夏季风波动,但在亚轨道尺度上Rb/Sr的敏感性明显高于磁化率。粒度、Zr/Rb和Rb/Sr所指示的东亚季风快速变化表现出较强的岁差信号,与石笋和北纬65°夏季太阳辐射有较好的对应关系,表明东亚季风变化也受到岁差直接驱动的夏季太阳辐射变的控制。在最后两个冰期-间冰期旋回中(即末期冰期旋回和倒数第二次冰期旋回)Rb/Sr及Zr/Rb比值和粒度记录分别可以辨别出与石笋相同数量级的变暖事件,但粒度记录的暖事件明显要多于Rb/Sr及Zr/Rb比值,且这些暖事件并不能一一对应。粒度及元素比值记录显著变冷的千年尺度的Heinrich(H)事件与石笋记录的夏季风明显减弱的事件有很好的对应关系,但其发生频率明显高于海洋记录。这些指标记录的千年尺度上波动信号的不一致性主要归因指标对不同气候要素敏感性的差异。未来需要进一步开展高分辨率多代用指标敏感性分析,选取对季风快速变化的敏感指标,有助于我们理解季风快速变化的特征(如周期和幅度等)和分析季风快速变化的时空差异性。  相似文献   

基于遥感的黄河三角洲海岸线变化研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

栗云召  于君宝  韩广轩  王永丽  张志东 《海洋科学》2012,36(4):99-106

以黄河三角洲的Landsat TM/ETM+影像(1989~2009年)为数据源,采用遥感与地理信息系统技术,对黄河三角洲的岸线与面积变化进行监测。结果表明:1989年以来,黄河三角洲的岸线形状及长度均发生了较大变化,其中北部的刁口河流路区岸线向内陆蚀退明显;清水沟流路区的岸线整体向海域推进,部分区域有蚀退现象;神仙沟流路区主要为人工海堤,岸线变化不大。黄河三角洲的整体面积在1989~2009年处于增加中,但2006~2009年,面积变化为负值。从淤蚀情况来看,1989~2009年,黄河三角洲的淤蚀强度经历了"和缓-剧烈"的过程。这说明20年来黄河三角洲整体上处于增长发育中,但2006年后三角洲整体上呈现蚀退现象,同时黄河三角洲的淤蚀情况变得比以往更剧烈,意味着更强的海陆交汇作用和岸线变化。黄河的入海流路、水沙量、降水量等是影响三角洲岸线变化的重要因素,而人工堤坝能够在一定程度上维持海岸线的稳定。对黄河三角洲海岸线变化的研究有助于有效地管理和保护区域的社会和生态环境。  相似文献   

基于RS数据的黄河三角洲湿地信息提取及湿地动态变化研究     

李东颖  杨文波  王琳  陈红波  李小恕  石静  李继龙 《海洋湖沼通报》2012,(1):100-109

本文采用分层分类和决策树分类方法,对黄河三角洲1986、1996、2009年3个时期Land-sat-TM数据进行了处理,提取了黄河三角洲湿地信息,分析了三角洲湿地20年间的动态变化。结果表明,湿地变化整体呈先增多后减少的趋势,其中人工湿地比重不断增加,面积增加最多的是盐田湿地,减少最多的是滩涂湿地,土地盐碱化加重;采用分层提取湿地信息的方法精度达到90%,结果优于监督分类和非监督分类。  相似文献   

自然地理格局对区域发展时空分异影响的评价方法     

李国胜  郭兆成  廖和平 《地理学报(英文版)》2008,18(2):225-236

With the rapid economic development during the last 30 years in China, more and more disparities have emerged among different regions. It has been one of the hot topics in the fields of physical geography and economic geography, and also has been the task for Chinese government to handle. Nevertheless, to quantitatively assess the impacts of physio-geographical patterns （PGP） on the regional development disparity has been ignored for a long time. In this paper, a quantitative method was adopted to assess the marginal effects of the PGP on spatio-temporal disparity using the partial determination coefficients. The paper described the construction of the evaluation model step by step following its key scientific thinking. Total GDP, per capita GDP, primary industrial output value and secondary industrial output value were employed in this study as the indicators to reflect the impacts of PGP on the regional development disparity. Based on the evaluation methods built by researchers, this study firstly analyzed the temporal impacts of the PGP on spatio-temporal disparity of the regional development in China during the past 50 years, and then explained the spatial differences at each development stage. The results show that the spatio-temporal disparity in China is highly related to the PGP, and that the marginal contribution rate could be employed as an effective way to quantitatively assess the impact of the PGP on spatio-temporal disparity of the regional development.  相似文献   

1971-2004年青藏高原总云量时空变化及其影响因子     

张雪芹  彭莉莉  郑度  陶杰 《地理学报(英文版)》2008,18(2)

With Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and trend analysis method adopted, the spatio-temporal variation of total cloud amount is analyzed for 75 stations on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the period 1971-2004. Analysis indicates that the total cloud amount decreases from the southeast to the northwest of the plateau, and that the annual and seasonal variations in total cloud amount both show an apparent declining tendency over the past decades. Correlation analysis demonstrates that the total cloud amount is negative with sunshine duration and diurnal temperature range (DTR), and is positive with precipitation and the relative humidity, respectively. The negative correlation is consistent with the radiative effect of cloud, while the positive correlation between total cloud amount and precipitation is obscured because of the influence of topographic factors. Discussion implies that the decrease of total cloud amount is possibly due to the variation of atmospheric aerosol content and ozone concentration over the plateau, although it is difficult to quantify the driving force mechanism up to now.  相似文献   

RZB型深井宽频带地形变综合观测系统的垂向应变测量单元     

陈征  欧阳祖熙  李宏  李涛  吴立恒  范国胜  张钧 《震灾防御技术》2014,9(1):126-132

目前钻孔应变观测一般为水平应变,使用无限岩石平板中的钻孔应力集中模型,可反演出水平应力场分布及变化.如果在此基础上加上垂向应力测量,就可反演出三维应力场分布.本文介绍的RZB型深井宽频带地形变综合观测系统的垂向应变测量单元,外钢筒为波纹管结构,并通过螺旋刻丝、热处理等技术,其垂向等效弹性模量比耦合水泥低一个数量级,同时垂向应变钢筒的水平向等效弹性模量高于垂向弹性模量一个数量级.垂向应变探头的力学结构可以被形象地看成是一个螺旋柱形弹簧,其轴向极易产生弹性形变,而水平向的硬度却得到了极大的加强,因此可在竖井中较为准确地测量轴向应变.  相似文献   

Industrial structural changes in Hong Kong, China under one country, two systems framework     

Simon Xiaobin ZHAO  Carola B RAMóN-BERJANO 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2012,22(3):302-318

Hong Kong has undergone substantial economic transformations and developed into a sophisticated business and financial center in the Asia-Pacific region,since the return of sovereignty to China as a Special Administrative Region under the One Country Two Systems (OCTS) in 1997.This paper discusses and analyzes the industrial structural changes of Hong Kong in recent decades as well as its future challenges and opportunities.The data and finding reveal that even though Hong Kong will face fierce competition from the Mainland’s cities as the rise of China,the important role as a bridge between China and the rest of the world will brace Hong Kong itself under the OCTS for developing into a service hub for business and trade in the Asia-Pacific region.  相似文献   

2010年中国西南旱情的时空特征分析——基于MODIS数据归一化干旱指数   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

白开旭  刘朝顺  施润和  高炜 《地球信息科学学报》2012,14(1):32-40,48

 近年来,干旱灾害频繁发生,对区域内农业生产和生态环境造成了极大的破坏。为了快速准确地获取大面积地表土壤水分信息用以评估地表受旱程度,本文以2010年年初中国西南大旱为例,运用MODIS可见光-红外波段数据以及像元可信度综合生成了归一化干旱指数(NDDI)。同时,结合研究区内地面气象站点实测的土壤湿度数据验证了NDDI对地表土壤湿度的敏感度。结果表明:相比于植被状态指数(VCI)干旱监测模型,NDDI能更加灵敏地对浅层地表干湿变化做出迅速响应。最后,本文利用NDDI分析了2010年年初中国西南大旱旱情发展的时空演变过程,宏观上重现了此次旱情的发展历程,并使用该指数统计了不同时间节点、不同干旱等级下的贵州省土地受旱面积。结果显示:2010年1月-2010年4月为贵州省旱情最为严重的4个月,平均受旱面积达103 352km²,最大受旱面积达132 257km²,占贵州省总面积的75%以上。同时,旱情等级为重旱的土地面积最大达到88 246 km²,占贵州全境土地面积的50%以上。  相似文献